Ukuphononongwa kweemarike zensimbi ngo-Agasti, njengeentsuku ze-31, nangona ixabiso lentsimbi linomnxeba omncinci ngeli xesha, kodwa ixesha elininzi kwimeko yokusebenza yokwehla komothuko, isalathisi sexabiso lentsimbi yawa ngamanqaku angama-89, intambo kunye nocingo lwawa. 97 kunye 88 amanqaku, ipleyiti medium and angqingqwa, amaxabiso eshushu yaqengqeleka 103, 132, amaxabiso aqengqiwe abandayo flat.I-62% yexabiso le-iron ore yavuka i-6 yeedola zase-US, i-coke composite index indexed iphinde yafumana amanqaku angama-6, amaxabiso entsimbi ye-scrap awela ngamanqaku angama-48, ukusuka kwinqanaba lexabiso eliphakathi, ixabiso lentsimbi edibeneyo, i-hot rolled kunye ne-plate ebandayo iphinde yabuyela kwi-1, i-32 kunye ne-113 amanqaku, intambo, ucingo kunye nepleyiti yawa 47, 44 kunye 17 amanqaku ngokulandelanayo.Izinto ezigqityiweyo zazibuthathaka kunokuba zilindelwe, kwaye i-fuel eluhlaza yayinamandla kunokuba kulindelwe.Nangona kunjalo, kwingxelo yenyanga edlulileyo, kwakhankanywa ngokucacileyo ukuba ukufika komgaqo-nkqubo wokuthintela imveliso kusisiseko sokubuyisela kwakhona, kwaye kuyimfuneko ukukhusela amashishini ekunciphiseni imveliso.Ukukhangela phambili kwimarike yensimbi ngoSeptemba, izixhobo zensimbi ziye zalawula imveliso, amaxabiso ensimbi kulula ukunyuka kwaye kunzima ukuwa, kwaye i-fuel eluhlaza kulula ukuwa kwaye kunzima ukunyuka.
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Kwimarike yentsimbi ngo-Agasti, akukho ngqiqweni ukuthetha ukuba kungakhathaliseki ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo wokulawula imveliso, kumxholo wokunciphisa imfuno yemveli ye-off-season, ii-mills zensimbi zikhetha ukukhetha ukugcina amanqanaba emveliso, kodwa zikwala ukunciphisa imveliso, ngenxa yoko. kwinzuzo yokusila yentsimbi yehla ukusuka kwi-64.94% ukuya kwi-51.08%, iintsimbi zentsimbi kunokuthiwa zichole i-sesame elahlekileyo ivatala, abanye basenokungacholi nesesame.
Nangona ukugcinwa kwemveliso yentsimbi kuye kwakhulula uxinzelelo lwezemali lwasekhaya ukuya kumlinganiselo othile, yonakalisa umdla woshishino kunye namashishini, kwaye ekugqibeleni konakalise umdla wesizwe (ukusuka kwi-irrational push up the price of iron ore).
Ndijonge phambili kwimarike yentsimbi ngoSeptemba, amaxabiso entsimbi asenoxinzelelo lweqonga, ikakhulu kwi:
Eyokuqala luxinzelelo lonikezelo, ukusuka kwidatha yomanyano lwentsimbi, umyinge wemveliso yemihla ngemihla yentsimbi etyhidiweyo phakathi kwaye ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti yayiyi-2.456 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nemveliso yentsimbi etyhidiweyo kwiveki yokugqibela yokuphela kwenyanga. ayizange iyancipha, ekwinqanaba eliphezulu, ibeka uxinzelelo lokubonelela kwimarike phakathi kukaSeptemba.
Okwesibini luxinzelelo lwemfuno, i-avareji yokuguqulwa kwemihla ngemihla yezinto zokwakha ngo-Agasti malunga neetoni ze-145,000, i-capital yeziseko ezingundoqo, i-real estate kunye nolwakhiwo olutsha lusenalo ukukhutshwa kwemfuno ngoSeptemba, nangona imfuno yexesha iya kuba ne- ukukhululwa okuthile, kodwa isantya esipheleleyo asanelanga, uxinzelelo lusekho.Ngokumalunga nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwekhaya nangaphandle uye wancipha ngakumbi, kwaye imfuno yaphesheya iwile, nto leyo eya kukhokelela ekubeni ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ngokuthe ngqo kunye ngqo neemveliso zentsimbi ziwe ngakumbi.
Ukongezelela, i-fuel yasekuqaleni iya kuvula inqanaba elisemthethweni lokuhla ngoSeptemba, kwaye ixabiso lentsimbi linokwenza i-drag ethile yesiteji.
NgoSeptemba, nangona ixabiso lentsimbi liwa, indawo iyancipha, okokuqala, intsimbi yensimbi yangoku nayo isiqingatha senzuzo yenkampani, kwaye nokuba kukho inzuzo, ayinanto, intsimbi yawa 50 ukuya kwi-100 yuan / ton, iintsimbi zetsimbi ezinenzuzo, zinokubuyela malunga ne-30%, ngelo xesha, akukho mfuneko yokunciphisa imveliso, iintsimbi zensimbi ziya kunciphisa ngenkuthalo imveliso, ukwenza ukubonelela kunye nokufunwa kwakhona, kwaye ixabiso lilungiswa.
Ipleyiti yephepha elingenasici
Ukujonga phambili kwimarike yentsimbi ngoSeptemba, izinto eziphambili ezenza kube lula ukuba amaxabiso entsimbi abuyele kwakhona:
Okokuqala, iimvakalelo ezinkulu ziye zalungiswa.Qwalasela isalathiso sokusasazwa okukhulu kweGuosen Securities kwiveki ye-25 ka-Agasti, ethe yaphinda yaphindaphindeka kangangeeveki ezimbini ezilandelelanayo, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba ukukhula kwezoqoqosho kuye kwanyuswa, ngakumbi emva kokubekwa emgangathweni kwexesha lonyaka, kwaye kuyaqhubeka nokunyuka, okungcono kunomyinge wembali. , kwaye ibonisa ukuba ukuchacha koqoqosho kulungile.Ngomhla wama-29 ku-Agasti, iseshoni yesihlanu yeKomiti eSisigxina ye-14 yeNkomfa yeSizwe yaBantu yaphonononga iNgxelo yeBhunga leSizwe malunga nokuPhunyezwa koHlahlo-lwabiwo-mali ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka ngomhla wama-28, kwaye yakwenza kwacaca ukuba enye yezitshixo ezintlanu. imisebenzi yezemali kwinyathelo elilandelayo kukuthintela kunye nokuthomalalisa umngcipheko wamatyala kurhulumente wasekhaya.Urhulumente ophakathi uxhasa ngenkuthalo oorhulumente basekhaya ekusombululeni imingcipheko yetyala elifihliweyo, ukhuthaza oorhulumente basekhaya ukuba balungelelanise zonke iintlobo zeemali, iimpahla, izixhobo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo exhasayo eyahlukeneyo kunye nemilinganiselo, ijolise ngokusondeleyo kwizixeko kunye nemimandla ukuqinisa umsebenzi wabo, ukusombulula ngokufanelekileyo amatyala akhoyo afihliweyo, wandise ubume bexesha, unciphise umthwalo wenzala, kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe uthothe imingcipheko yamatyala.Ukongezelela, umgaqo-nkqubo wokuqaphela izindlu kunye nokungaziboni iimali-mboleko zivuliwe, kwaye kunokubakho intshukumo enkulu kwixesha elizayo, elikwanciphisa uxinzelelo.
Okwesibini, intsimbi yinto encinci yokuphinda ibuyele kweli gagasi lempahla, kukho indawo yokulungiswa.Ukuqwalasela i-index yempahla ye-Mandarin, ibuyele kwi-165.72 ekupheleni kukaMeyi ukuya kwi-189.14 ngo-Agasti 30, i-rebound ye-14.1%, i-contract ye-thread 10 iphinde yavela kwi-3388 ekupheleni kukaMeyi ukuya kwi-3717 kwi-30, i-rebound ye-9.7%, i-rebound ye-9.7%, iimpahla ezimbalwa nazo zibonakale ziphinda kabini imarike.Ukuba ujonga kuphela iziseko zakho, iziseko zentambo azibi, kwaye kukho umgaqo-nkqubo wezoshishino (umthamo wokuvelisa, ukuveliswa kokulawula kabini), kufuneka kubekho indawo yokulungiswa.
Okwesithathu, imfuno yensimbi kulindeleke ukuba ithathe ixesha elithile ngoSeptemba.Ukususela ekubonweni kwedatha yesinyithi, imveliso yentsimbi ka-Agasti ayinakuwa kodwa inyuke, kuqikelelwa ukuba imveliso yemihla ngemihla okanye malunga ne-2.95 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye ne-inventory yeenkcukacha-manani zomanyano lwentsimbi iya kwanda ngeetoni ezingama-330,000, ebonisa ukuba intsimbi ekrwada. ukusetyenziswa ngo-Agasti ngoJulayi kunyuke malunga ne-10.5% ngasemva, kusenokwenzeka ukugcina malunga ne-10% yokukhula konyaka, kwaye imfuno ayikhange iwile.NgoSeptemba, ngokuhla kweqondo lokushisa, ukwakhiwa kwakhona emva komkhukula, ukukhawuleza kweprojekthi, njl., Imfuno kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ngexesha elifanayo kunye nenyanga ngenyanga.
Ngokophando lolwakhiwo lwekhulu leminyaka, imfuno esezantsi yoshishino lokwakha: imveliso yesamente yamashishini angama-250 yayiyi-5.629 yezigidi zeetoni, eyayiyi-5.05% (ixabiso langaphambili + 1.93) kunye -28.3% (ixabiso langaphambili -31.2).Ngokombono wengingqi, kuphela i-South China yachatshazelwa kukunyuka kwemvula, eyehla inyanga nenyanga, ngelixa uMntla we-China, uMzantsi-ntshona, uMntla-ntshona, uMbindi we-China, i-East China kunye ne-Northeast China yonke ibuyele.Imfuno yeeprojekthi zeziseko ezingundoqo: ukunikezelwa kwesamente ngokuthe ngqo kwiitoni ze-2.17 yezigidi, + 4.3% ngokulandelelana (ixabiso langaphambili + 1.5), unyaka nonyaka -4.8% (ixabiso langaphambili -5.5).Kwelinye icala, eminye imisitho yengingqi sele iza kubanjwa, kwaye iiprojekthi zeziseko zophuhliso zinemihla ebekiweyo ecacileyo;Kwelinye icala, inani leeprojekthi ezisandul’ ukuqaliswa liye landa, yaye imfuneko yempahla yokwakha yezinye iiprojekthi ezigqityiweyo iye yaphinda yasetyenziswa.Imfuno yokwakhiwa kwezindlu: Umthamo wezothutho zekhonkrithi zezikhululo zokuxuba ze-506 zaziyi-2.201 yezigidi zeemitha zeemitha, + 2.5% ngeveki-ngeveki (ixabiso langaphambili + 1.9), kunye -21.5% ngonyaka (ixabiso langaphambili -30.5).Ukusuka kwindawo yokujonga yengingqi, ngenxa yokudilizwa kunye nokwakhiwa ngokutsha kwezikhululo ezithile zokuxuba eNyakatho yeChina, umthamo wezithuthi uyancitshiswa, kwaye umthamo wezithuthi eMzantsi China uyancipha emva kokunyuka kwemvula, ngelixa i-China ephakathi, eSouth-ntshona, Umntla-mpuma, uMntla-ntshona kunye neMpuma yeChina zonyuswa.Iipolisi ezithandekayo zexesha elide, ukuthengwa kwezantsi kwenyuka kwiiveki ezintathu.Ukususela ngo-Agasti 21 ukuya ku-Agasti 27, indawo epheleleyo yezindlu ezintsha zorhwebo kwizixeko eziphambili ze-8 zaziyi-1,942,300 square metres, ukwanda kwe-4.7% ngeveki ngeveki.Ngexesha elifanayo, ummandla opheleleyo wokuthengiselana kwezindlu zangasese (iikhontrakthi) kwizixeko ezisibhozo eziphambili zaziyi-1.319,800 square metres, ukwanda kwe-6.4% ngeveki-veki.
Ukususela kwi-inventory yamva nje yezinto ezigqityiweyo zamashishini amashishini akhutshwe yi-National Bureau of Statistics, iqhubekile nokuwa, yehla ukuya kwi-1.6% ngoJulayi xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo, kwaye uluhlu lwempahla lwawa nge-0.2% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo. zonke zikwimeko ephantsi ngokwentelekiso kwimbali.Idatha ye-sub-industry ibonisa ukuba izixhobo zokuthutha eziphezulu, imboni yombane, kunye ne-inventory ephantsi yonxibelelwano lwekhompyutha, izixhobo eziqhelekileyo kunye namanye amashishini avele iimpawu zokuzaliswa, ebonisa ukuba imfuno yezinto zokwakha iye yawa ngaxeshanye. , Ukukhula kwemfuno yentsimbi yokuvelisa kuye kwagqitywa ngokupheleleyo kwi-gap.Lo mkhwa kulindeleke ukuba uqhubeke, mhlawumbi ngoSeptemba, kuya kubakho ukukhululwa kwemfuno ephakathi.Ngokutsho kwedatha yesampulu yesaveyi yensimbi yeNsimbi, ngoSeptemba, ukusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kwezinto eziluhlaza kwisakhiwo sentsimbi, iimoto kunye namanye amashishini ensimbi kwanda nge-3.23%, 8.57% kunye ne-8.89% ngokulandelanayo, kunye noomatshini kunye nemizi-mveliso yezixhobo zasekhaya zawa. nge-4.07% kunye ne-7.35% ngokulandelelanayo.
Okwesine, ukunikezelwa kwentsimbi kuya kuwela ngoSeptemba.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanye amashishini anyanzeliswa ukuba anciphise imveliso kunye nokulahlekelwa kwelahleko, amanye amashishini aqalise ukuphumeza imigaqo-nkqubo yokuthintela imveliso, kwaye ulawulo lokusingqongileyo luye lwaba lukhuni, oluya kuzisa uxinzelelo ekukhutshweni kokunikezelwa kwamanye amashishini.Ngomhla we-15 ku-Agasti, uMphathiswa we-Ecology kunye nokusiNgqongileyo, uMphathiswa wezoKhuseleko loLuntu kunye ne-Supreme People's Procuratorate ngokudibeneyo yongamela amatyala e-11 yokubeka iliso ngokuzenzekelayo i-falsification yongcoliseko lokusingqongileyo ngamacandelo angundoqo okukhutshwa kongcoliseko.La matyala ali-11 aye akhutshelwa lisebe lemeko yendalo esingqongileyo kumaziko okhuseleko oluntu ukuze kuphandwe ngokudibeneyo kunye nokusingatha, abandakanya inkitha yamashishini kumaphondo alithoba, omabini amacandelo okukhutshelwa kongcoliseko kunye neeyunithi zeqela lesithathu zokusebenza nokugcinwa kwazo.Ngokutsho kwedatha yophando lwesampulu, inani elincinci lamashishini esampula ngoSeptemba wokuvelisa intambo ngo-Agasti okanye malunga ne-5% yokwehla.
Ngenxa yokulibaziseka kokuphunyezwa komgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo lwemveliso ngeentsimbi zentsimbi ngenxa yezizathu ezahlukahlukeneyo, ngokwesiseko sonyaka wonyaka we-17.28 yeetoni zezigidi ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJulayi, ubuncinane i-7.5 yezigidi ngo-Agasti, oko kukuthi, intsimbi ekrwada yanda. malunga ne-24.78 yezigidi zeetoni ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Agasti.Oku kuthetha ukuba kwiintsuku eziyi-122 ukusuka kuSeptemba ukuya kuDisemba, usuku oluqhelekileyo kufuneka luvelise iitoni ezingaphantsi kwama-203,000, kunye nemveliso yentsimbi ekrwada yemihla ngemihla ukususela ngoSeptemba ukuya kuDisemba kunyaka ophelileyo yi-2.654 yezigidi zeetoni, oku kuthetha ukuba imveliso yentsimbi ekrwada yemihla ngemihla EyoMsintsi ukuya kuDisemba kulo nyaka akanako ukudlula 2.451 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo nangoku ngokweziphumo ulawulo tyaba ukubala.Oku kuthetha ukuba umgangatho wemihla ngemihla wentsimbi ekrwada ngonyaka uya kuncitshiswa malunga neetoni ezingama-500,000 ngokwesiseko sangoku.
Ngoko ke, ukusuka kumbono ongentla, ixabiso lexabiso lensimbi alinzima.
Ngokombono wamafutha akrwada, nangona ekuqaleni konyaka, ndatsho kwakhona ukuba imarike ingene kwinqanaba elitsha lomngcipheko wokurhweba, ixhala, i-nonlinear kunye nengaqondakaliyo, ukunyuka kwakutshanje okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso entsimbi, nangona siyazi ukuba ezinye zingenakuphepheka. Izinto (ukukhusela izithuba ezimfutshane, ukuhla kwexabiso le-RMB, imveliso yentsimbi enesantya esiphezulu, i-ore inventory ephantsi, njl. njl.), kodwa kuthengiswe ngengxolo eninzi: Kwelinye icala, umndilili wentsimbi enyibilikisiweyo yemihla ngemihla yamashishini angama-247 yayigcwele ngokupheleleyo. kuthengiswe, kodwa ayihoywa into yokuba i-avareji yokuveliswa kwentsimbi yehagu yemihla ngemihla yeBureau of Statistics ngoJulayi (i-2.503 yezigidi zeetoni) yawela ngeetoni ezingama-63,000 xa kuthelekiswa noJuni (i-2.566 yezigidi zeetoni).Kwelinye icala, kurhweba ngokupheleleyo uluhlu oluphantsi ngokwentelekiso yentsimbi ore, kodwa ngoyaba iinyanga 7 yokuqala yehagu intsimbi yanda kuphela 17.9 yezigidi zeetoni, lo gama intsimbi ore kumazwe angaphandle ngaphezu kwe-43.21 yezigidi zeetoni kunye nentsimbi yasekhaya yanda nge-34.59 yezigidi zeetoni (vumela. bebodwa bathi uluhlu lwempahla yentsimbi yesizwe ayikho ngenene ezantsi kwi-inventri elawulayo kakhulu, uluhlu lwempahla yokusila yentsimbi yehla nge-9.65 yezigidi zeetoni);Ukongeza, ithengise ngokupheleleyo iingeniso ze-windfall zemigodi ephuma kumazwe angaphandle, kodwa ingayihoyi inzuzo encinci eqhubekayo kunye nelahleko yamashishini okuvelisa intsimbi;Ukongezelela, ukurhweba ngokupheleleyo ubunyani kunye nokulindela kweentsimbi zetsimbi okwethutyana kunganciphisi imveliso okanye nokulawula imveliso kwixesha elizayo, kodwa ngoyaba ubunzulu kunye nokuthembeka komgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo olubini.Ngoku uxinzelelo olugqithiseleyo kwintsimbi kunye nokutsalwa okungenangqondo kwepetroli eluhlaza, kunye nokuqala kwexesha lokufika komgaqo-nkqubo ngoSeptemba, ukusuka kumbono wokuhlonipha imarike, abo babini baya kuzisa ukubuyisela kwabo okufanelekileyo, ixabiso lepetroli eluhlaza. ngumbandela wexesha kunye nesingqisho kuphela, ubukhulu, ixesha elide, xa linyuka, likhulu isithuba sokuhla kwixesha elizayo.
Idatha ye-International Steel Association ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJulayi, i-pig ye-iron ye-774 yezigidi zeetoni, ukwanda kweetoni ze-17 yezigidi ngexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo we-757 yezigidi zeetoni, ngokutsho kwe-1 toni ye-iron ye-pig ye-1.6 yeetoni ze-1. intsimbi ekrwada ukulinganisa, ngaphezu kwexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo ukusebenzisa intsimbi ore phantse 27 yezigidi zeetoni.Phakathi kwazo, iChina yavelisa i-532 yezigidi zeetoni zentsimbi yehagu, ukwanda kweetoni ze-24 yezigidi ukusuka kwi-508 yezigidi zeetoni ngexesha elifanayo kunyaka odlulileyo, kwaye idle i-38 yezigidi zeetoni ezingaphezulu kweentsimbi.Imveliso yentsimbi etyhidiweyo kwamanye amazwe yehla ngeetoni ezizizigidi ezisi-7 nyaka ngamnye, yaye ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi ekrwada kwehle ngeetoni ezizizigidi ezili-11,2.Inokubonwa kwidatha ye-WSA ukuba imveliso ye-iron yehagu yaseChina inyuke nge-4.7% ngonyaka, kwaye ukunyuka kwayo kubalelwa kwi-140% yokunyuka kwehlabathi, oko kukuthi, ukunyuka kwemfuno yesinyithi yehlabathi jikelele kwavela eChina. .Nangona kunjalo, ngokweenkcukacha-manani ezifanelekileyo, imveliso yentsimbi yehlabathi inyuke ngeetoni ezizigidi ezingama-63 ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJulayi, kunye nentsalela yeetoni ezizigidi ezingama-25.Ukusuka kwidatha yoqwalaselo lwesathelayithi, imveliso egqithisileyo yamazwe ngamazwe yentsimbi ekrwada iqokelelwa ikakhulu kumazibuko aphesheya kweelwandle kunye nempahla yokukhukuliseka elwandle.Icandelo le-iron ore le-Steel Union liqikelela ukuba ubuncinane iitoni ezizizigidi ezili-15 zentsimbi ekrwada ziye zongezwa phesheya kweelwandle.
ityhubhu yekhoyili yensimbi engenasici
Ingabonwa ukuba isampuli kunye nenombolo yesampuli yahlukile, ireferensi ayifani, kwaye izigqibo zingahluka.Enye ingongoma kukuba ukusebenza kwenani elincinane leesampuli kumaxesha athile kunokungahambelani nedatha yazo zonke iisampulu, nokuba ngokwemigaqo yenguquko, ngakumbi ngokwemilinganiselo yotshintsho, enokuthi ihlale yenza ingxolo. intengiselwano, kwaye le ntengiselwano ihlala iluhambo.Ngaphandle kokufikelela esiphelweni.
Ngamafutshane, imarike yensimbi ngoSeptemba, kumxholo wokungeniswa ngakumbi kwemigaqo-nkqubo eyahlukeneyo kunye nokuphunyezwa kwemigudu, amaxabiso ensimbi kulindeleke ukuba angenise i-rebound yangempela emva kokuphindaphinda ngokuphindaphindiweyo ekupheleni kuka-Agasti.Kwakhona, kucetyiswa ukuba iintsimbi zensimbi kufuneka ziphumeze ngokusebenzayo ulawulo lokunciphisa imveliso, ukunciphisa imveliso kwangethuba kunye nenzuzo yokuqala, abarhwebi kunye neeterminals baqhubeka nokutshixa ngenkuthalo kwezinye izixhobo ezinexabiso eliphantsi, basebenzise ikamva okanye isixhobo sokhetho arbitrage, ukuhlangabezana nesezantsi. ukuxatyiswa kwezinto ezininzi zokuqala, kwaye emva koko uhlangabezane noqingqo-maxabiso oluphezulu lwesibaso sokuqala, okanye ungenise ixesha elingcono lefestile.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-02-2023