Senza uphando lwemarike oluzimeleyo kuluhlu olubanzi lweemveliso zehlabathi kwaye sinegama lokuthembeka

Senza uphando lwemarike oluzimeleyo kuluhlu olubanzi lweemveliso zehlabathi kwaye sinegama lokuthembeka, ukuthembeka, ukuzimela kunye nokuthembeka kunye nabathengi kumacandelo emigodi, isinyithi kunye nezichumisi.
I-CRU Consulting ibonelela ngeengcebiso ezinolwazi nezisebenzayo ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zabaxumi bethu nabachaphazelekayo.Uthungelwano lwethu olubanzi, ukuqonda okunzulu kwimarike yempahla kunye nokuziphatha okuhlalutyayo kusivumela ukuba sincede abathengi bethu kwinkqubo yokwenza izigqibo.
Iqela lethu lokubonisana linomdla wokusombulula iingxaki kunye nokwakha ubudlelwane bexesha elide kunye nabathengi bethu.Fumana ulwazi oluthe kratya malunga namaqela akufutshane nawe.
Yandisa ukusebenza kakuhle, ukwandisa inzuzo, ukunciphisa ixesha lokuphumla - khulisa ikhonkco lakho lokubonelela ngoncedo lweqela lethu elizinikeleyo leengcali.
Imisitho ye-CRU ibamba imisitho yeshishini elikhokelayo kwishishini kunye nethekhnoloji kwiimarike zentengiso yehlabathi.Ulwazi lwethu lwamashishini esiwasebenzelayo, ludityaniswe nobudlelwane bethu obuthembekileyo kunye nemarike, kusivumela ukuba sinikezele ngenkqubo exabisekileyo esekwe kwizihloko ezivezwa ziinkokeli zokucinga kushishino lwethu.
Kwimiba emikhulu yozinzo, sikunika imbono ebanzi.Isidima sethu njengombutho ozimeleyo kunye nokungakhethi cala kuthetha ukuba unokuthembela kumava ethu, idatha kunye neengcamango zomgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu.Bonke abachaphazelekayo kuthungelwano lweempahla badlala indima ebalulekileyo kwindlela eya ekukhuselweni kungabikho nto.Sinokukunceda ukuba ufezekise iinjongo zakho zokuzinza, ukusuka kuhlalutyo lomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kokutshintshwa kwamandla acocekileyo kunye noqoqosho olujikelezayo olukhulayo.
Ukutshintsha umgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu kunye nezikhokelo zolawulo kufuna inkxaso eqinileyo yezigqibo zohlalutyo.Ubukho bethu behlabathi jikelele kunye namava asekuhlaleni aqinisekisa ukuba sinikezela ngelizwi elinamandla nelithembekileyo, naphi na apho ukhoyo.Ukuqonda kwethu, iingcebiso kunye neenkcukacha ezikumgangatho ophezulu ziya kukunceda wenze izigqibo ezifanelekileyo zobuchule boshishino ukufezekisa iinjongo zakho zozinzo.
Utshintsho kwiimarike zemali, ukuveliswa kunye nobuchwepheshe kuya kuba negalelo ekukhutshweni kwe-zero, kodwa zikwachatshazelwa yimigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente.Ukusuka ekukuncedeni ukuba uqonde ukuba le migaqo-nkqubo ikuchaphazela njani na, ukuya kuqikelelo lwamaxabiso ekhabhoni, ukuqikelela ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ngokuzithandela, ukukhutshwa kwe-benchmarking, kunye nokubeka iliso kubuchwepheshe bokunciphisa ikhabhoni, UZinzo lweCRU lukunika umfanekiso omkhulu.
Utshintsho kumandla acocekileyo lubeka iimfuno ezintsha kwimodeli yokusebenza yenkampani.Ukuzoba kwidatha yethu ebanzi kunye namava oshishino, iCRU Uzinzo lubonelela ngohlalutyo olucacileyo lwekamva lamandla ahlaziyekayo, ukusuka emoyeni kunye nelanga ukuya kwi-hydrogen eluhlaza kunye nokugcinwa.Sinokuphendula imibuzo yakho malunga nezithuthi zombane, intsimbi yebhetri, imfuno yemathiriyeli ekrwada kunye nenkangeleko yexabiso.
Ubume bendalo, intlalo nolawulo (ESG) buguquka ngokukhawuleza.Ukusebenza kakuhle kwezinto kunye nokuhlaziywa kwakhona kuya kubaluleka ngakumbi.Uthungelwano lwethu kunye namandla ophando asekuhlaleni, adityaniswe nolwazi olunzulu lwemarike, luya kukunceda uhambe kwiimarike ezintsonkothileyo zesibini kwaye uqonde ifuthe leendlela ezizinzileyo zokwenziwa kwemveliso.Ukusuka kuphononongo ukuya kucwangciso lwemeko, siyakuxhasa ekusombululeni ingxaki kwaye sikuncede uqhelane noqoqosho olusetyhula.
Uqikelelo lwamaxabiso e-CRU lusekwe kulwazi lwethu olunzulu lweziseko zemarike yempahla yorhwebo, ukusebenza kwekhonkco lonikezelo lulonke, kunye nokuqonda kwethu okubanzi kweemarike kunye nohlalutyo lwesakhono.Ukusukela ekusekweni kwethu ngo-1969, sityale imali kwizakhono zophando eziphambili kunye nendlela eyomeleleyo neselubala, kuquka namaxabiso.
Funda amanqaku ethu eengcaphephe zamva nje, funda malunga nomsebenzi wethu kwizifundo zezifundo, okanye ufumane malunga neewebinars ezizayo kunye neendibano zocweyo.
Ukusukela ngo-2015, ukukhuselwa korhwebo lwehlabathi kuye kwanda.Yintoni eyabangela oku?Oku kuya kuluchaphazela njani urhwebo lwentsimbi yehlabathi?Kwaye oku kuthetha ukuthini kurhwebo lwexesha elizayo kunye nabathumela ngaphandle?
Ukunyuka kwamaza oKhuseleko Amanyathelo okukhusela urhwebo lwelizwe aguqula kuphela ukuthengwa kwempahla evela kumazwe angaphandle kwimithombo ebiza kakhulu, ukunyusa amaxabiso asekhaya kunye nokubonelela ngokhuseleko olongezelelweyo kubavelisi belizwe abancinci.Ukusebenzisa umzekelo we-US kunye ne-China, uhlalutyo lwethu lubonisa ukuba nangemva kokungeniswa kwamanyathelo okurhweba, inqanaba le-US yokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nenqanaba lokuthengisa ngaphandle kwe-China alihluke kwizinto ezilindelekileyo, kunikwe imeko yemarike yensimbi yasekhaya nganye. ilizwe.
Isiphelo ngokubanzi sesokuba "intsimbi inako kwaye iya kufumana ikhaya."Amazwe athumela kumazwe angaphandle asaya kufuna intsimbi evela kumazwe angaphandle ukuze ahambelane nemfuno yawo yangaphakathi, ngokuxhomekeke kukhuphiswano olusisiseko lweendleko kwaye, kwezinye iimeko, ukukwazi ukuvelisa amabakala athile, akukho nalinye kuwo elichatshazelwa ngamanyathelo orhwebo.
Uhlalutyo lwethu lubonisa ukuba kwiminyaka eyi-5 ezayo, njengoko imarike yasekhaya yaseChina iphucula, ukurhweba ngentsimbi kufuneka kunciphe ukusuka kwincopho yayo ngo-2016, ngokukodwa ngenxa yokuthunyelwa kwe-China ephantsi, kodwa kufuneka kuhlale ngaphezu kwamanqanaba e-2013.Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-CRU, ngaphezu kwe-100 yamatyala orhwebo afakwe kwi-2 iminyaka edlulileyo;ngeli lixa bonke abarhwebi abaphambili bengabona kujoliswe kuko, elona nani likhulu lamatyala orhwebo ayechasene neChina.
Oku kuphakamisa ukuba isikhundla nje somthengisi omkhulu wentsimbi kwandisa amathuba okuba ityala lokurhweba lifakwe kwilizwe, kungakhathaliseki ukuba ziphi na izinto ezisisiseko kwimeko.
Inokubonwa kwitheyibhile ukuba uninzi lweemeko zorhwebo zezentengiso ezishushu eziqengqelekayo ezifana ne-rebar kunye ne-hot-rolled coil, ngelixa iimeko ezimbalwa zezemveliso zexabiso eliphezulu ezifana ne-coil-rolled-rolled sheet.Nangona amanani epleyiti kunye nemibhobho engenamthungo eqaqambile ngokumalunga noku, abonisa imeko ethile yomthamo ogqithisileyo kula mashishini.Kodwa zithini iziphumo zala manyathelo angasentla?Zikuchaphazela njani ukuhamba kwezorhwebo?
Yintoni eqhuba ukukhula kokhuseleko?Enye yezona zinto ziphambili eziqhuba ukomelezwa kokhuseleko lwezorhwebo kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo kukwanda kwemveliso yaseTshayina ukusuka ngo-2013. Njengoko kubonisiwe kulo mfanekiso ungezantsi, ukususela ngoku, ukukhula kokuthengiswa kwentsimbi yehlabathi kuqhutywa ngokupheleleyo yiChina, kwaye isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle kweChina kwimveliso yentsimbi yasekhaya iyonke inyuke yaya kutsho kwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ekuqaleni, ngakumbi ngo-2014, ukukhula kweemveliso zaseTshayina akuzange kubangele iingxaki zehlabathi: i-market ye-steel yase-US yayinamandla kwaye ilizwe lavuya ukuvuma ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, ngelixa iimarike zetsimbi kwamanye amazwe zenza kakuhle.Imeko yatshintsha ngo-2015. Imfuno yehlabathi yentsimbi yehla ngaphezu kwe-2%, ngakumbi kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2015, imfuno kwimarike yensimbi yaseTshayina yawa kakhulu, kwaye inzuzo yoshishino lwensimbi yawela kumanqanaba aphantsi kakhulu.Uhlalutyo lweendleko ze-CRU lubonisa ukuba ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle kwentsimbi lisondele kwiindleko eziguquguqukayo (jonga itshathi kwiphepha elilandelayo).
Oku ngokwayo akukho ngqiqweni, njengoko iinkampani zetsimbi zaseTshayina zijonge ukuhla, kwaye ngenkcazo engqongqo yeSigaba 1, oku akuthethi ukuba "ukulahla" intsimbi kwimarike yehlabathi, njengoko amaxabiso asekhaya nawo ayephantsi ngelo xesha.Nangona kunjalo, oku kuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwenzakalisa ishishini lentsimbi kwenye indawo kwihlabathi, njengoko amanye amazwe engakwazi ukwamkela isixa sezinto ezikhoyo ngokunikezelwa kweemeko zabo zemarike yasekhaya.
Kwisiqingatha sesibini 2015, China wavala umthamo wayo 60Mt imveliso ngenxa yeemeko ezirhabaxa, kodwa izinga lokuhla, ubungakanani China njengelizwe steelmaking enkulu, kunye nomzabalazo wangaphakathi kwisabelo semarike phakathi eziko zokwazisa lwasekhaya kunye nezixhobo ezinkulu zentsimbi ezihlanganisiweyo zatshintsha uxinzelelo. ukuvala izibonelelo zemveliso kude nonxweme.Ngenxa yoko, inani lamatyala orhwebo aqala ukwanda, ngakumbi ngokuchasene neTshayina.
Impembelelo yorhwebo kwintengiso yentsimbi phakathi kwe-US kunye ne-China inokusasazeka kwamanye amazwe.Itshathi ngakwesobunxele ibonisa ukuthengiswa kwe-US ukususela ngo-2011 kunye nenzuzo yegama loshishino lwentsimbi yelizwe esekelwe kulwazi lwe-CRU lweendleko kunye nokuhamba kwexabiso.
Okokuqala, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba, njengoko kuboniswe kwi-scatterplot ngakwesokudla, kukho ubudlelwane obuqinileyo phakathi kwezinga lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kunye namandla emarike yasekhaya yase-US, njengoko kuboniswa yinzuzo yoshishino lwensimbi.Oku kungqinwa luhlalutyo lwe-CRU lokuhamba korhwebo lwentsimbi, olubonisa ukuba urhwebo lwentsimbi phakathi kwala mazwe mabini luqhutywa zizinto ezintathu eziphambili.Oku kuquka:
Nayiphi na kwezi zinto zinokuvuselela ukurhweba ngentsimbi phakathi kwamazwe nangaliphi na ixesha, kwaye ekusebenzeni izinto ezisisiseko zinokuthi zitshintshe rhoqo.
Siyabona ukuba ukususela ekupheleni kwe-2013 ukuya kuyo yonke i-2014, xa i-market ye-US yaqala ukugqithisa ezinye iimarike, yavuselela ukuthengiswa kwempahla yasekhaya kunye nokungeniswa kwempahla yonke kunyuke kwinqanaba eliphezulu kakhulu.Ngokufanayo, ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwaqala ukuhla njengoko icandelo lase-US, njengamanye amazwe amaninzi, libi kakhulu kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2015. Inzuzo ye-industry yensimbi yase-US yahlala ibuthathaka kwaze kwaba sekuqaleni kwe-2016, kwaye umjikelo wangoku wezivumelwano zorhwebo ubangelwa a. ixesha elingapheliyo lenzuzo ephantsi.La manyathelo sele eqalisile ukuchaphazela ukuhamba korhwebo njengoko imirhumo ithe emva koko yanyanzeliswa kwizinto ezisuka kwamanye amazwe.Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba ngelixa ukuthengiswa kwe-US kunzima ngoku ngakumbi kwabanye abarhwebi abakhulu, kuquka i-China, i-South Korea, i-Japan, i-Taiwan, ne-Turkey, ukuthengwa kwelizwe lonke akukho ngaphantsi kunokulindelekile.Inqanaba laliphakathi koko kwakulindelekile.uluhlu, kunikwe amandla akhoyo ngoku kwimarike yasekhaya ngaphambi kwe-2014 boom.Okuqaphelekayo, xa kujongwe amandla emarike yasekhaya yaseTshayina, ukuthunyelwa kwelizwe laseChina kukonke okwangoku kukwangaphakathi kuluhlu olulindelekileyo (inqaku aliboniswanga), libonisa ukuba ukuphunyezwa kwamanyathelo orhwebo akuzange kube nempembelelo ebalulekileyo kumandla okanye ukuzimisela kwayo ukuthumela ngaphandle.Kuthetha ukuthini ke oku?
Oku kubonisa ukuba, ngaphandle kweentlawulo ezahlukeneyo kunye nezithintelo ekungeniswa kwemathiriyeli evela e-China nakwamanye amazwe ukuya e-United States, oku akuzange kunciphise inqanaba elilindelekileyo lokungeniswa kwelizwe, okanye inqanaba elilindelekileyo lokuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazwe.Oku kungenxa yokuba, umzekelo, amanqanaba okungenisa kumazwe angaphandle ase-US kunye namanqanaba okuthumela ngaphandle kwe-China anxulumene nezinto ezibaluleke ngakumbi ezichazwe ngasentla kwaye azikho phantsi kwezithintelo zorhwebo ngaphandle kwezithintelo ezicacileyo zokungenisa elizweni okanye izithintelo ezinzima.
Ngo-Matshi ka-2002, urhulumente wase-US wazisa iirhafu zeCandelo le-201 kwaye kwangaxeshanye wanyusa iirhafu zokungeniswa kwentsimbi kumazwe amaninzi ukuya kumazinga aphezulu kakhulu, angabizwa ngokuba sisithintelo esinzima sorhwebo.Ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwehle malunga ne-30% phakathi kuka-2001 kunye no-2003, kodwa nangona kunjalo, kunokuxoxwa ukuba ukuhla okukhulu kwakunxulumene ngokuthe ngqo nokuhla okuphawulweyo kweemeko zemarike yasekhaya yase-US eyalandelayo.Ngelixa amaxabiso akhoyo, ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kwatshintsha njengoko bekulindelekile kumazwe angenamsebenzi (umzekelo, eKhanada, eMexico, eTurkey), kodwa amazwe achaphazelekayo kwiirhafu aqhubeka nokubonelela ngezinye izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, iindleko eziphezulu ezithumela amaxabiso e-US aphezulu.enokuthi ivele ngenye indlela.Imirhumo yeCandelo lama-201 iye yarhoxiswa ngo-2003 ngenxa yokuba yayibonwa njengokwaphulwa kwezibophelelo zase-US kwi-WTO, nasemva kokuba i-European Union isoyikisela impindezelo.Emva koko, ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwanda, kodwa ngokuhambelana nokuphuculwa okunamandla kwiimeko zemarike.
Kuthetha ukuthini oku kuhambo lorhwebo ngokubanzi?Njengoko kuphawuliwe ngasentla, inqanaba langoku lokungeniswa kwe-US alikho ngaphantsi kunokuba kulindeleke ngokwemfuno yasekhaya, kodwa imeko kumazwe anikezelayo itshintshile.Kunzima ukumisela isiseko sokuthelekisa, kodwa ukuthengiswa kwe-US ngokupheleleyo ekuqaleni kwe-2012 kwakuphantse kufana nasekuqaleni kwe-2017.
Ngelixa ingacaciswanga, itheyibhile ibonisa ukuba imithombo yokungenisa elizweni yase-US itshintshile kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo.Ngoku kukho izinto ezininzi eziza elunxwemeni lwase-US zivela eJapan, eBrazil, eTurkey, naseCanada, ngelixa izinto ezincinci zivela eChina, eKorea, eVietnam, kwaye, okubangela umdla, eMexico (qaphela ukuba isifinyezo esivela eMexico sinokuba nesimo sengqondo malunga neengxabano zamva nje. phakathi kwe-US ne-US).Mexico) kunye nomnqweno wolawulo lweTrump ukuxoxisana kwakhona nemigaqo ye-NAFTA).
Kum, oku kuthetha ukuba abaqhubi abaphambili borhwebo - ukukhuphisana kweendleko, amandla eemarike zasekhaya, kunye namandla eemarike zendawo - zihlala zibalulekile njengangaphambili.Ngaloo ndlela, phantsi kweemeko ezithile ezinxulumene nala mandla okuqhuba, kukho inqanaba lendalo lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle, kwaye kuphela izithintelo zokurhweba ezigqithisileyo okanye ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kweemarike kunokuphazamisa okanye ukutshintsha kuyo nayiphi na inqanaba.
Kumazwe athumela ngaphandle intsimbi, oku kuthetha ukuba “intsimbi inako kwaye iya kuhlala ilifumana ikhaya.”Olu hlalutyo lungentla lubonisa ukuba kumazwe angenisa intsimbi kumazwe angaphandle afana ne-United States, izithintelo zorhwebo zinokuchaphazela kancinane kuphela inqanaba lilonke lokungeniswa ngaphandle, kodwa ngokwembono yomthengisi, ukuthengwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuya kutshintshela “kolona khetho lulandelayo”.Enyanisweni, "okwesibini okulungileyo" kuya kuthetha ukuthengwa kwempahla ebiza kakhulu, okuya kuphakamisa amaxabiso asekhaya kunye nokubonelela ngokhuseleko olongezelelweyo kubavelisi bentsimbi kwilizwe elibiza ixabiso eliphezulu2, nangona ukukhuphisana kweendleko ezisisiseko kuya kuhlala kunjalo.Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, le miqathango inokuba nemiphumo ecacileyo yesakhiwo.Kwangaxeshanye, ukukhuphisana kweendleko kunokuhla njengoko abavelisi benenkuthazo encinci yokunciphisa iindleko njengoko amaxabiso enyuka.Ukongezelela, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ensimbi kuya kunciphisa ukukhuphisana koshishino lokuvelisa, kwaye ngaphandle kokuba imiqobo yorhwebo ibekwe kunye nentsimbi yonke yexabiso lentsimbi, imfuno yasekhaya inokuwa njengoko ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi kutshintsha phesheya kolwandle.
Ukukhangela phambili Ke ithetha ukuthini le nto kurhwebo lwehlabathi?Njengoko besesitshilo, mithathu imiba ephambili yorhwebo lwehlabathi - ukukhuphisana kweendleko, amandla emarike yangaphakathi, kunye nesikhundla kwimarike yendawo ekusingwa kuyo - enefuthe eliqinisekileyo kurhwebo phakathi kwamazwe.Sikwavile ukuba, ngenxa yobukhulu bayo, i-China isembindini wengxoxo-mpikiswano malunga norhwebo lwehlabathi kunye namaxabiso entsimbi.Kodwa sinokuthini ngale miba ye-equation yorhwebo kule minyaka mihlanu izayo?
Okokuqala, icala lasekhohlo letshathi engentla libonisa imbono ye-CRU malunga nomthamo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwe-China kude kube ngu-2021. Sinethemba lokuba i-China iya kufikelela ekujoliswe kuyo ukuvala umthamo, okufuneka ukwandisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ukusuka kwi-70-75% ukuya kwi-85% ngokusekwe kwi uqikelelo lwemfuno yentsimbi.Njengoko ulwakhiwo lwemarike luphucuka, iimeko zeemarike zasekhaya (oko kukuthi, inzuzo) nazo ziya kuphucula, kwaye iintsimbi zentsimbi zaseTshayina ziya kuba nenkuthazo encinane yokuthumela ngaphandle.Uhlalutyo lwethu lubonisa ukuba ukuthengiswa kwe-China kunokuwela kwi-<70 yeetoni ze-metric ukusuka kwi-110 yeetoni ze-metric ngo-2015. Kwinqanaba lehlabathi, njengoko kuboniswe kwitshathi ukuya ngasekunene, sikholelwa ukuba imfuno yentsimbi iya kwanda kwiminyaka eyi-5 ezayo kwaye njenge Iziphumo "iimarike zeendawo" ziya kuphucula kwaye ziqalise ukuxinzelela ngaphandle kokungeniswa ngaphandle.Nangona kunjalo, asilindelanga nakuphi na ukungafani okukhulu ekusebenzeni phakathi kwamazwe kunye nenethi impembelelo ekuhambeni korhwebo kufuneka ibencinci.Uhlalutyo olusebenzisa imodeli yexabiso lentsimbi ye-CRU lubonisa utshintsho oluthile kukhuphiswano lweendleko, kodwa akwanelanga ukuchaphazela kakhulu ukuhamba kwezorhwebo kwihlabathi.Ngenxa yoko, silindele ukuba urhwebo lwehle ukusuka kwiincopho zakutsha nje, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuthotywa kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle evela eTshayina, kodwa kuhlale ngaphezulu kwamanqanaba ka-2013.
Inkonzo eyodwa ye-CRU sisiphumo solwazi lwethu olunzulu lwemarike kunye nobudlelwane obusondeleyo nabathengi bethu.Silindele impendulo yakho.